1. Funding Estimates, Current Era (1996/7)
The first table reproduces Betzer Report numbers (upright type) and interleaves NSF/OCFS data presented at FIC in San Francisco, December 1996, in italics. The Betzer Report estimated 1996 agency funding levels, and then projected them forward in constant dollars to the year 2000. The NSF data afford some more recent funding estimates and preliminary guesses into 1997.
The rightmost column (boxed) is a set of guesses about the approximate realistic current-era funding, in light of the more recent info, to be extrapolated forward in the light of agency trends. The italics show the change (+/-) from the corresponding Betzer Report entry:
The net of all this is that the current-era sum to be projected forward is estimated at $48.5M, $1.2M larger than the Betzer Report $47.3M. Another way to say this is that the substantial NOAA and NAVO impacts have produced nearly a wash in the bottom line, offset by decreases elsewhere.
II. Future Trends
The Betzer Report simply projected constant dollars in all categories to the year 2000. There is some macro-information to modify this. Trends to 2002 in three macro-categories from both the President's budget and the Congressional budget resolution of last summer are shown, taken from AAAS budget analysis (http://www.aaas.org/spp/dspp/rd/outyr.htm). "Factors" are the ratios of the 2002 values to the 1996 values. There is no separate Congressional projection in DOD R&D. The three macro-categories selected are NSF R&RA (factor a), NOAA Operations, Research and Facilities R&D (factor b), and DOD R&D (factor c).
Assume that these factors apply as shown in the final table to the UNOLS micro-situation. In particular, assume that the DOD factor applies to "OTHER" because of the preponderance of the NAVO component in "OTHER," assuming the NAVO link holds up at all. Then the UNOLS funding projections to 2002 are as shown in the final tab!-.: $48.055M under the President's plan, $51.698M under the Congressional plan.
III. Gap
Fleet costs in 2002 - are projected in two ways. Method (a) is to extend the Betzer Report to 2002 with 2 additional years of 4% inflation, the same inflation assumed in the original report. Method (b) is to use the smaller inflation figures, average 2.2%, that AAAS uses, and to recalculate the Betzer Report cost time series (table 4 of Betzer Report) accordingly. In both cases the same assumptions as in the original report about entry and departure of ships in the fleet, and cost changes in consequence thereof, are retained: no replacement for Moana Wave, no Arctic vessel.
The result is a range of estimates of the operations funding gap in the year 2002, as shown. Best case (Congressional funding, AAAS inflation) is a $7.4M gap. Worst case (Presidential funding, Betzer Report inflation) is a $22.8M gap. As noted, this situation includes an allowance for ongoing NOAA and NAVO funding, under some projection assumptions, and assumes the 1995 FIP array of UNOLS ships now and in the future period under consideration here.
